There is an urgent need to adapt the way we produce food and build food security in a warming world. Already, the impacts of climate change on food production are being felt with increasing severity:
Extreme weather events are estimated to have increased household food bills in the UK by £605 over the last two years
A severe El Nino has led to increased risks of food insecurity in Southern Africa and Central America, which are forecast to persist well into 2024
By 2050, climate change could lead to a 20% rise in food prices globally
For a globally interconnected food system, the impacts of one country’s extreme weather are felt along trading routes around the world. Meanwhile, global greenhouse gas emissions are rising. The UN predicts a 9% rise in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, falling massively short of the required 45% drop in emissions – a sobering reminder of the scale of the climate crisis and how far we must go to change.
The solutions
Securing transformative change in our food system represents one of the most important tools in averting the worst impacts of global heating and simultaneously building resilience to the degrees of warming that can no longer be avoided. Such change requires a shift in how we value the natural environment and its role in putting food on our plates. Building resilient, diverse and ecologically functioning landscapes means embracing nature-based solutions over seductive techno-fixes.
The scale of change also requires a shift in diets, away from a propensity for junk food produced through heavy reliance on agrichemicals and monoculture, towards foods that are as healthy and diverse as the landscapes where they’re produced.
Such a feat is dependent on much more than transformation at the farm level. It’s political, encompassing everything from how we design and incentivise more sustainable land use to how we govern both global trade and the market.
A worthy declaration?
The Leaders Declaration on Food Systems, Agriculture & Climate Action has been lauded as a key milestone in achieving change. It recognises the link between food systems and climate change as a driving cause and an important solution while acknowledging that climate change is undermining the resilience of agriculture and food systems, subjecting already vulnerable people to greater risk of hunger, malnutrition and economic strife.
The text commits to urgent food system transformation, with collaborative working between signatories to:
Scale up adaptation efforts to build resilience to the impacts of climate change
Increase food security and nutrition, especially for those vulnerable
Support workers in the food system whose livelihoods are threatened by climate change
Strengthen water security
Maximise the climate and environmental benefits of food systems while containing and reducing harmful impacts
The signatories also commit to integrating agriculture and food systems into national adaptation plans, nationally determined contributions and national biodiversity strategies ahead of COP30 in Brazil. Alongside this, the declaration compels nations to assess whether national agriculture policies and payments serve to deliver several important objectives including emissions reduction, adaptation and ecosystem restoration. Having been signed by 134 heads of state, including the UK, and representing over 5.7 billion people, the declaration could catalyse meaningful change.
But while the declaration has shone a much-needed spotlight on how we feed ourselves sustainably, the commitments are vague. It has overlooked some of the more pertinent changes, including any meaningful acknowledgement of the role of dietary change in supporting mitigation and adaptation, particularly reducing the production and consumption of intensive livestock products and a shift to less but better animal foods sourced from nature-friendly farms.
Similarly, there are no commitments to eliminate the use of fossil fuels when the food system's emissions account for more than that of the EU and Russia combined. Such omissions undermine the declaration’s ability to keep 1.5 C of warming in sight.
An international framework for action at a local level
As a signatory of the declaration, the UK will need to demonstrate how it is integrating food systems into relevant national policy frameworks. Both national and devolved governments will need to point to the steps they are taking to phase out food and farming policies that are causing harm, to be replaced by new systems that are equipped to deliver a broader set of priorities.
Across the UK, farmers are willing to embrace new ways of doing things to help get the best from our land, for public health, nature and the climate. But many are losing confidence in the ability of governments to lead this much-needed transition. Despite bold commitments to support farm-level change across the UK, there is a growing gap between ambitious rhetoric and ambitious action.
Where the UK is lacking:
The UK lacks a targeted strategy or targets to ensure that agriculture can sufficiently adapt to climate change
In most land-based sectors, policies are insufficient in delivering required emissions reductions from agriculture and land use by the 6th carbon budget
In Wales, payments for nature-friendly farming have been reduced by as much as 97%
In England, the number of scheme agreements for the most ambitious land management has declined by 80% compared to a decade ago
In Northern Ireland, many farmers will be left without a suitable land management scheme until 2026 at the earliest
These are compounded by the lack of conviction and political will to address other systemic issues, such as supporting a wider shift to diverse and sustainable diets, improved access to healthy and affordable food, increased supply chain fairness and significant reductions in food waste.
Although the UK can point to some progress in integrating food systems into relevant national policies, current action falls well short of demonstrating genuine leadership on the international stage. COP28 represents the start of food systems being a key pillar in the international climate agenda. The UK would do well to up its game.
